ETH2: Probability of Proposal Opportunity

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The goal of this page is to display a graph that shows the %likelyhood (y-axis) of having at least (configurable) N number of proposal opportunities after an elapsed period of time.

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Assumptions

• No change in active validator set or total staked eth over the given time period
• For a given validator, (its effective balance) / (total staked eth) is a good estimate of block proposal opportunity PER BLOCK. This appears to be true. (Further thoughts:) Within the ETH2 phase 0 specification, when searching for a block's proposer, a shuffled list of active validators is iterated through. Each validator's effective balance influences the chances of that validator being chosen. But, the effective balances of the other validators are important as well because if you are at shuffled position X, validator at (shuffled) index say X minus 5's chances of being chosen as also influenced by that validator's effective balance. If a validator before you in the shuffled index is chosen, you would not be considered. In simulations, I find (its effective balance) / (total staked eth) to provide a reasonable estimate of a validator's chance of being chosen to propose any given block. If all active validators have equal (say 32 eth) effective balance, then this simplifies to 1/(total active validators). But the latter would not attempt to account for the rest of the validators' effective balance's influence directly and indirectly on a given validator's chances.

Note

• The plot's y-axis is a rounded percentage. Even if it says 100%, note this can be approached but never be the actual probability.